.Jane Thomas/UMCES Integration and Application Network
Hundreds of hazardous industrial facilities are in danger of flooding across the Mid-Atlantic region in coming decades as rising seas pile coastal waters closer to their doorsteps.
More than 600 sites along the coast from Virginia to New York are expected to be at risk of flooding during a 100-year storm by the end of the century, assuming greenhouse gas emissions continue growing unchecked, according to a new study.
Among the more notable sites in the Chesapeake Bay region that could face flooding by 2100: the Domino Sugar Refinery in Baltimore; the St. Michael’s wastewater treatment plant on Maryland’s Eastern Shore; the Fort Eustis Army base in Newport News, VA; DuPont’s Spruance Plant in Chesterfield County, VA; and the Washington Navy Yard in the District of Columbia.
Nationwide, the total number of at-risk facilities amounts to about 5,500.
The study was authored by scientists at the University of California, China’s Nanjing University and Climate Central, a nonpartisan science nonprofit. It was published in November in the journal Nature Communications.
The researchers also found that coastal neighborhoods located near at least one flood-imperiled facility had a greater proportion of people of color, higher poverty rates, lower rates of home ownership and a lower percentage of vehicle ownership than those not living near such a facility.
“This analysis makes it clear that these projected dangers are falling disproportionately on poorer communities and communities that have faced discrimination and therefore often lack the resources to prepare for, retreat or recover from exposure to toxic floodwaters,” said Lara Cushing, the paper’s lead author and an associate professor at UCLA’s Fielding School of Public Health.
The study mapped a variety of sites, including manufacturing plants, power plants, sewage treatment facilities, oil and gas port infrastructure and former defense sites. The 600 sites across jurisdictions in the Chesapeake Bay region that face such flood risks — in Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia —include locations both inside and outside the estuary’s watershed.
The 100-year flooding scenario refers to an inundation event that has a 1% chance of happening in any given year.
When natural and technical threats mingle, they result in what are called “NaTech,” or “natural-technological,” disasters, said Sacoby Wilson, a University of Maryland environmental mapping expert who was not involved in the project.
“You can have a natural event that leads to a spill or a leak or an explosion at a facility,” he said.
If hazardous chemicals mix with floodwaters, nearby residents could come into contact with a “toxic soup” of toxins and germs. Short-term health effects could include rashes, burning eyes and throat, headaches and fever. Exposure over many years could bring more dire health consequences, ranging from asthma to certain types of cancer, Wilson added.
Climate Central developed a mapping tool to help policymakers and land planners address hazardous sites that could become flooded.
“Our tool is a broad-based screening approaching that shows how risks can be reduced in key areas,” said Rachel Morello-Frosch, a University of California, Berkeley, professor who contributed to the study.
The actual flooding risk may be greater because the researchers were unable to build into their model the impact of stronger hurricanes, which is another expected byproduct of climate change.