There has been a lot of hype by the media concerning the avian flu virus and the possibility of a pandemic – a world wide outbreak. As of now and probably for a long time into the future, that is all it is – hype.

That exact word was used by Harry Danforth at the Agricultural Research Service, the USDA’s chief scientific agency. I talked to him for about 45 minutes today. Dr. David Swayne and other experts who developed the poultry vaccine for the H5N1 strain has been speaking against the hype and trying to infuse some truth, but the people who really know the facts are swimming upstream against the media.

The hype has gotten so bad, the President even made a serious misstatement of fact in his speech Nov. 1. He said, “The avian flu virus is not easily transmitted from human to human.”

Truth: The avian flu virus has not EVER transmitted from human to human and is not easily transmittable from bird to human. Avian flu is being used frighten the government into preparing for ANY pandemic that may happen, whether natural or man made, such as a biological terrorist attack.

Without the facilities, personnel and resources to produce and provide vaccines for whatever may happen, key word “may”…there could be a major problem in the future.

Obviously, it worked, the President is now pushing for funding. After Katrina, he must appear to be on top of any threat. The trouble is, the country has been panicked into believing they are in some immediate danger when they aren’t.

If, due to this fear, an avian flu outbreak is reported, I’m afraid some bureaucrats are going to immediately react without even knowing whether it is one of the many harmless avian flu viruses or H5N1. In that case, people could lose their livelihood or pets for no reason, many could suffer dreadful fear over a simple colds, and/or take other destructive measures and the media would be totally responsible by acting totally irresponsibly.

They have never reported the simple fact that you are far more likely to win the lottery or get struck by lightening than you are to catch avian flu even if there were an outbreak of H5N1.

I have no ax to grind with President Bush, but I do think it is the responsibility of any President to get his facts straight and calm and reassure the public rather than adding fuel to the fire. Now to the facts …

FACT: There are many strains of avian flu virus, most of which cause only mild illness in poultry. If you hear that there has been an avian flu outbreak, don’t assume that it is a deadly variety.

FACT: The strain of avian flu virus that is of concern and has been in the news is H5N1. It is highly contagious among chickens and turkeys and can be carried by ducks (domestic and/or wild). Ducks do not die of the virus, but can spread the contagion.

FACT: Poultry can be vaccinated against the virus. A 1997 outbreak in Hong Kong was contained by killing all the poultry, and is now controlled by vaccination and improved handling and sanitary regulations. 18 people contracted the virus in 1997 and 6 died. That was out of a population of almost 7 million. THERE HAVE BEEN NO FURTHER OUTBREAKS IN HONG KONG SINCE EVEN THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN OUTBREAKS IN COUNTRIES ALL AROUND THEM.

FACT: Outbreaks of the H5N1 virus have occurred in many asian countries in 2003/4 and outbreaks have now been