“I feel more hopeful with the results than before we got the results,” was how Acting Director of the St. Mary’s County Department of Economic Development Robin Finnacom reacted to the unveiling of an economic forecast conducted for the county by Towson University. The study had its coming-out party Wednesday before a packed room at the Southern Maryland Higher Education Center. The unveiling was sponsored by the county’s Economic Development Commission.
Executive Director of Towson University’s Regional Economic Studies Institute Dr. Daraius Irani said the study “focuses on assessing the economic impact of sequestration and the Pentagon drawdown on St., Mary’s County” The study used Department of Defense (DoD) budget estimates and quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Finnacom said that County Chief Financial Officer Elaine Kramer looked at the charts and observed that they all showed upward movement. Indeed the most telling chart on the impact on jobs showed very little impact on the country from the DoD drawdown and less job growth, but still upward movement, with sequestration or both sequestration and the drawdown.
For instance, projected 2020 jobs without sequestration and a drawdown (43,980) are very close to the number with the drawdown but without sequestration (44,830). The chart does show a dip last year but gradual returns to 2012 levels by 2016.
The impact on wages by 2020 with and without the drawdown is neutral (both $2.77 billion) with the figure with sequestration at $2.61 billion and with both sequestration and drawdown at $2.61 billion.
According to Irani the top three private industries most impacted by the federal government actions would to Management of Companies and Enterprises, Manufacturing, and Finance and Insurance. The Top Five occupations most impacted would be Business Operations Specialists, Financial Specialists, Operations Specialists Managers, Financial Clerks, and Secretaries and Administrative Assistants.
In response to a question from the Bay Net, Irani said the study did not take into consideration Patuxent River Naval Air Station’s mission but assumed across the board impacts on the defense industry in general.
The release of the Economic Forecast for St. Mary’s County is part of a blitz of activities aimed at getting a handle on the economic situation and determining what can be done to diversify the economy away from its heavy dependence on federal spending. Finnacom said, “We would be foolish not to look at how to diversify the economy.”
Next Tuesday, July 22, at 9 a.m. the Southern Maryland Navy Alliance will be releasing to the county commissioners the results of a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the economy.
Then on August 19 well-known Maryland economist Anirban Basu will be giving a presentation at 6 p.m. at Frank Knox Training Center in Lexington Park. That will be followed the next evening with a presentation by Dr. C Scott Dempwolf of the University of Maryland. It will be at 6 p.m. at the county commissioners’ conference room.
