For Congressman Steny Hoyer, vying to become the newly-Democratic House Majority Leader, the silence of a sometime-rival and fellow Maryland native is golden, political insiders say.

Hoyer and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., who in January will become the first female speaker, have had a strained relationship since both ran for minority leader in 2002, but analysts say that the tension may be an asset to Democrats as they try to shape their agenda.

Both leaders were congratulated personally by President Bush, who praised the Democrats’ “disciplined campaign” at a press conference following the midterm election.

But House leadership elections, cast by secret ballot and slated for Nov. 16, loom large for the area’s longest-serving congressman.

These contests are “the ultimate inside political deal,” that members take very seriously, said Richard E. Cohen, a congressional correspondent for National Journal.

Last summer, Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., a close political ally of Pelosi’s, announced he would challenge Hoyer, who is now minority whip, for the majority leader post. Murtha won publicity last year by surprising many fellow Democrats in calling for the immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq last year.

Murtha does not appear to have qualms about playing the Pelosi card in his campaign.

“Steny Hoyer has campaigned against Nancy Pelosi not only openly, but under the table for the last two or three years,” he said Wednesday on National Public Radio. “This is an open seat.”

Analysts agree that Pelosi will want to avoid an inter-party blood bath at all costs, and that Hoyer is an obvious choice given their successful teamwork in unifying the caucus.

“I’m gonna win,” Hoyer said Friday. “There’s no doubt in my mind. I have the votes of the majority of the existing members and I think I’ll have the majority of the votes of the new members.”

“I would be very surprised if Pelosi let this turn into a food fight,” said Zach P. Messitte, a political science professor at St. Mary’s College of Maryland.

Jonathan Allen, a House leadership reporter for Congressional Quarterly, agreed. The race hasn’t gotten nasty yet, he said, and Pelosi’s refusal to weigh in speaks volumes.

With her silence, Pelosi is making a decision in Hoyer’s favor, said Allen. Though she is very close to Murtha, Pelosi’s lack of a stance on the race tacitly allows her allies to make up their own minds.

The more moderate Hoyer has received bipartisan support in his own district and is known on Capitol Hill for his success in galvanizing the party as whip since 2003.

It is these skills that he will bring as a consensus builder in the diverse caucus, he has said.

Hoyer is in a good position to curry favor given his non-stop stumping on behalf of Democrats this season.

Hoyer spent much of the election season on the road and still won about 83 percent of the vote against a Green Party candidate to win his 14th term representing Maryland’s 5th District.

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